Republican Primary Not a Horse Race: Giuliani Tops the Polls

In honor of Holy Week, a time when people sit back and reflect on last year and the coming of new hope and opportunity (except for Buckeyes, who have to sit in the corner and memorize the phrase: "The Big 10 is not the SEC and we wouldn't even finish fourth in that conference"), I offer an insight into the presidential primaries.

First, pundits everywhere refer to a primary as a horse race. Bunk. Nobody voted for Seabiscuit to win, he outran the competition. A primary is all about the votes. So, I think a horse race analogy is all wrong.

The Primary is like a college football poll. That's right, it is a popularity contest to some degree, and it adds in on field performance to create a mystifying (or stupifying when your favorite team should be in the BCS but isn't) set of results. Ultimately, the team that plays best and has a high enough favorable rating with the voters will wind up number one.

And as the race unfolds, it looks like a college football poll. Take a look at the Republican Numbers from Real Clear Politics. You can see how candidates are trending. If it were to be matched up with a college football season, it would read something like this.

Rudy Giuliani: He begins the season in the spot reserved for USC/Michigan. Everyone is chattering about him, he has a powerful team, it has depth and he should run the table if he plays error free to the end. Rudy Fans should hope he's USC. Michigan usually chokes.

John McCain is Ohio State. He started with a load of fanfare and hoopla, but like Ohio State, he can't play with the Big Boys. One tough opponent and the gag reflex kicks in. He's DOA at game one, but he'll get to stick around long enough to get pounded into Mush on the National Stage.

Mitt Romney: He looks like a Gator. His team is well prepared. His playbook is full and his defense is bone-jarring. He's lean and hungry and he's fast. He gets his share of scandalous accusations and he has a loss on his schedule somewhere because he only plays against powerhouse teams. He has the look of a BCS champion waiting to happen.

Some Guy from Tennessee is exactly like Tennessee. He's the down home favorite, but he can't talk, he staggers from play to play and he thinks that this is like a Tennessee high school game. His team is in disarray and his hopes are usually crushed by Mid-October, right after he hits the big Florida game.

Mike Huckabee: He screams Boise State. He's the team you root for because he doesn't have a prayer. He'll do well, finish strong and everybody will admire the effort, but he won't win it all because everyone knows the Gators' beat down of the Buckeyes was National Championship material (oops, threw that one in).

Sam Brownback: Welcome to St. Mary of the Plains, The school in the NAIA who plays a powerhouse schedule featuring other schools you've never heard of. Yep, he thinks he's Notre Dame, but he's not even Division III material.

The rest are Mid-Majors (I only included Brownback because he needs a jab once a week).

Who will be number one at the end? Tough to say. There's a bunch of games to be played and the Voting only counts at the end. But my point is that unlike a horse race, perception matters in this game. Let's keep the analogies accurate. And, of course, keep in mind that the season doesn't end at the point where everyone in Ohio thinks a team is unbeatable. Got that Buckeyes?

Go Gators.