IISS: Al Qaeda is Back?

HT: [Drudge]


Ayman al-Zawahiri

From the Full Story at the Guardian:

"Al-Qaida has revived, extended its influence, and has the capacity to carry out a spectacular strike similar to the September 11 attacks on America, one of the world's leading security thinktanks warned yesterday.
There is increasing evidence "that 'core' al-Qaida is proving adaptable and resilient, and has retained an ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the western world despite the attrition it has suffered", said the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "The threat from Islamist terrorism remains as high as ever, and looks set to get worse," it added.

"The US and its allies have failed to deal a death blow to al-Qaida; the organisation's ideology appears to have taken root to such a degree that it will require decades to eradicate," it continued.

The warning came in the latest annual review of world affairs by the IISS. Its strategic survey paints a bleak picture of global security in the future and warned:

· Iran could have a nuclear weapon by 2009 or 2010, though this remains the "worst-case prediction";

· the US suffered a loss of authority as a result of the failure to impose order in Iraq. "The strategic hole the US found itself in [in 2007] did not have any obvious escape";

· there are serious doubts about the ability of Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's prime minister, but any replacement would probably come too late to "halt the draining of American willpower to 'stay the course' ".

· that if climate change is allowed to continue unchecked, its affects will be catastrophic "on the level of nuclear war".

The last sentence essentially makes the report null and void from a strategic standpoint. If the writers are equating global warming with Iran toting a nuclear bomb, then the report is likely filled with so many flaws that it isn't worth reading.

The fact is that 500 scientists have challenged the bunk about the "closed" Global Warming debate, and the debate has little to do with national security. As an aside, if you're seeking the most accurate meteorological work on the planet, Accuweather.com is a good start.

Back to the IISS. From their own About Us page:

"The IISS is the primary source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues for politicians and diplomats, foreign affairs analysts, international business, economists, the military, defence commentators, journalists, academics and the informed public. The Institute owes no allegiance to any government, or to any political or other organisation.

The Institute’s high-profile publications are both timely and authoritative. They are universally regarded as providing the best independent, internationally sourced information and commentary on the main strategic events touching on national, regional and global security.

The Institute's conference activities are considered to be at the forefront of public policy development, especially given that its convening power is such that it can often bring government officials and others together in formats and circumstances that they could not easily manage for themselves." - Emphasis Added

It appears from the text above that the IISS is prone to wild overstatement.

Have a look at their board for more background.

The point? Al Qaeda may have regrouped, but I'll judge that with the NIE, not the IISS report. Drudge should be more careful with his sources sometimes.