Thompson's Position Unclear

Human Events marks the first week of the Thompson candidacy with an essay about how he's positioned in the race. The Thompson supporters have surged him into second place nationally, but the foundation for his campaign is shaky. In the early states, he's not in good position. He's better off in other states, but that may not make much of a difference.

From the Essay:

"Did Thompson’s relatively late start in the race hurt him? It depends on where you are. In Virginia and Mississippi, for example, State Republican Chairmen John Hager and Jim Herring respectively told me that so preoccupied are Republicans in their states with state elections this fall that there is next to no discussion of the presidential race the following year. Indeed, in Virginia, the two likely Republican combatants for the Senate nomination, Rep. Tom Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, have put off their own declaration of candidacies until after the all-important races for the state legislature in November. So a candidate announcing in September for a presidential race the following year has no problem."

On the one hand, Virginia and Mississippi are better hauls electorally than Iowa. On the other hand, position means everything in a Primary, and by the time they come into play, they may not matter. Thompson's "South Carolina Firewall" may not matter if the momentum is built up behind another candidate.

Then, the issues about perception work both for and against him:

"National pundits have also begun to fire barbs at the Thompson balloon as it begins to rise. In his column September 13th, Robert Novak complains that potential Thompson backers across the country “wanted to board the Thompson camapgin but were repelled by his gate-keepers”-- one of whom he identifies as longtime national GOP operative Mary Matalin. The same day, George Will’s Thompson commentary was even more devastating; in echoing liberal columnist Ruth Marcus, Will concluded that the former senator “is unfamiliar with the details of his own positions” and cites a rambling interview with radio hostess Laura Ingraham about his work to enact McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation."

While he has a contingent of "Fredheads" who have been in his corner, how many will be moving away from him if he's painted as THE insider candidate. Matt at Free to Choose has a blow-by-blow of the Will article and it is worth a read.

The point? Thompson has work to do. He may yet re-invent campaigning, but if he does, it may be costly. Does he have the bankroll to pull it off?